Rodri v Fernandinho

How has Manchester City’s defense been affected by Rodri replacing Fernandinho?

Manchester City’s title defense has not gone to plan. While their attack has been as scintillating as ever, their defense has regressed. We can see this in Figure 1 (Only years under Pep Guardiola are included). According to expected goals (xG), Manchester City’s attack has been as good as ever in terms of creating chances. Meanwhile, their expected goals against (xGA) paints a picture of a team leaky at the back.

Figure 1: Manchester City’s attack & defense under Pep Guardiola

Indeed, as Figure 2 shows, Manchester City’s defense has declined in virtually all aspects. They are conceding more shots, more goals & higher quality chances. (Graphic by @MatPilotto)

Figure 2: How has Manchester City’s defense changed since last season (Key Metrics)

There are several popular reasons for City’s failed title defense. Their attack has underperformed their xG while Laporte, arguably their most important defender, has missed a big portion of the season with injury. However, a big reason for this decline is City’s deteriorating pressing. City have conceded significantly more counter-attacks this season (Figure 3), and Rodri replacing Fernandinho as the holding midfielder can help explain why.

Figure 3: Manchester City have been conceding more counter attacks this season.

Pressing Profiles

With the holding midfielder one of the more important players in preventing counter-attacks, it is important to compare the pressing profiles of Fernandinho and Rodri (Figure 4. At first glance, there seems to be little difference in the pressing profiles of both players. This leads us to the next question: Why has City’s pressing intensity [as indicated by PPDA] decline? In short, their pressing profiles aren’t similar, as we will soon find out.

Figure 4: Comparing Rodri and Fernandinho’s pressing.

To further investigate this, we must first consider how Pep’s City aim to stop counter-attacks. We can see this clearly in Figure 5. Because City’s central midfielders play so high upfield, Pep inverts his full-backs to create 5-man defense to control counter-attacks. However, this setup leaves the second line with a decision to make.

Figure 5: Manchester City’s different setups to prevent counter attacks.

Within this setup, the second line, and the holding midfielder in particular, will always have to decide when to push forward and support the counter-press, and when to hang back/retreat to try to contain the situation. A source close @TheAthleticUK revealed that this is an area City want Rodri to improve on. (Figure 6)

Figure 6: Rodri’s pressing concerns by @TheAthleticUK

This is an area which Fernandinho had perfected last season. In Figure 7, we see him recognizing that Pogba has beaten the counter-press, so he hangs back and waits for Pogba to advance towards him. As Pogba advances, Fernandinho selects the perfect opportunity to close him down, eventually winning the ball and stopping the counter-attack.

Figure 7: Fernandinho preventing a counter-attack against Manchester United last season.

Let’s compare this to Rodri now. In a similar situation against Liverpool this season, Mane is already beyond City’s first line, and Rodri does not recognize that there is no opportunity to counter-press given the limited support. He thus pushes up to close down Mane, but with little support, is bypassed easily allowing Liverpool to counter-attack. (Figure 8)

Figure 8: Rodri trying to stop a counter-attack against Liverpool earlier this season.

Indeed, in Figure 9, we can see that although Rodri presses more often, they are erratic in nature, as seen by his lower success rate. The nature and efficiency in tackling differs as well. Not only does Rodri dive in more often, he is much less successful then Fernandinho, who is excellent in one v one situations (Figure 10). Due to the nature of their position, having a lower success rate in 1v1s and being bypassed more often can result in very dangerous situations for you team.

Figure 9: Manchester City’s midfielders pressing compared.

Figure 10: Manchester City’s midfielders tackling compared.

Tackling & Fouling

The reason for the significant differences can be explained by the locations of these events. Rodri’s pressing/tackling predominantly occur outside of the centre of the pitch, and down the flanks in particular. Fernandinho meanwhile, is more controlled in his approach. His engagements are more concentrated in central areas and in the lower mid-third, indicating that he possesses a better understanding of when to press vs when to retreat. (Figure 11 - Heat-maps by @StatifiedF)

Figure 11: Fernandinho and Rodri’s tackling compared.

Moreover, “tactical-fouling” is a crucial part of preventing counter-attacks in a Pep Guardiola system. In Figure 11, we can see that more of Fernandinho’s challenges result in “tactical-fouls”. For example, in Figure 12, Fernandinho stops the counter-attack by fouling Lingard. Given that being beaten means surrendering a dangerous opportunity, he commits a “tactical” foul. On the other hand, in Figure 13, Rodri allows Firmino to dribble past him and move into the vacated central area and continue the attack.

Figure 12: Fernandinho stopping a counter-attack against Manchester United last season with a foul.

Figure 13: Rodri gets dribbled past easily against Liverpool this season.

Reading Play & Positioning

Another important area to note, is that Fernandinho is better at positioning himself, particularly in the half-spaces and lower mid-third, to block and intercept passes that are crucial to stopping counter-attacks (Figure 14 - Heat-maps by @StatifiedF). His superior positioning and reaction time also helps him win crucial second balls more often. (Figure 15)

Figure 14: Rodri & Fernandinho’s interceptions and positioning compared

Figure 15: Manchester City’s midfielders recoveries & interceptions compared.

This positioning allows Fernandinho to be well positioning to win second balls. His reading of play enables him to react quicker than other players, and thus easily recovering the ball. An example of this is seen in Figure 16. Rodri, on the other hand, is caught watching the ball while stationary. His slow reaction time results in a contested loose ball, which he eventually loses. (Figure 17)

Figure 16: Fernandinho being well-positioning to recover a loose ball against Everton last season.

Figure 17: Rodri not reacting quick enough to win the second ball.

Conclusion

As discussed in this article, there are several areas that Rodri must still improve. However, whilst him replacing Fernandinho is a big part of City’s defensive issues, it would be unfair to solely blame him. There are several other factors at play which must also be considered. Among them are:

• Aymeric Laporte’s injury and absence, coupled with Vincent Kompany’s departure. Kompany’s leadership and experience was crucial in helping City see out last season.

• Bernardo Silva’s diminished role in midfield means City have lost one of their most intense pressers in central areas.

• Benjamin Mendy’s more frequent availability this season means Pep has had to adjust his tactics at times. Mendy is at his best as an overlapping full-back. As such, Pep has had to sit Ilkay Gundogan or Kevin De Bruyne (neither are particularly great defenders) deeper to keep the same 2-3/3-2 structure at the back.

Overall, Rodri has performed well in his first season and it is understandable that he will have some teething issues. However, he still needs to improve in defensive transition situations. City’s declining defense is a true testament to how important Fernandinho has been for Pep Guardiola’s side.

Data Sources: Statsbomb via Fbref | Wyscout