Scouting Tottenham Hotspur 2020/21

A look into Tottenham's bright start to the season, and what Arsenal should know before this weekend's North London Derby.

This weekend, Arsenal prepare to face the league leaders and England’s in form team, Tottenham Hotspur. The Lilywhites have been on a great run since the opening weekend defeat to Carlo Ancelotti’s Everton. Since then, their record stands at 6W, 3D, 21 goals scored and only 8 conceded. The Gunners face a daunting task as they prepare to visit Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for this season’s first North London Derby.

How have Tottenham played this season? Who are their key players? What are their weaknesses that Arsenal could potentially exploit?

Expected Lineup:

Tottenham have fielded an unchanged lineup (with the exception of Rodon replacing the injured Alderweireld) in their past two big games against Manchester City and Chelsea. The same lineup is expected to feature again this week, with Bergwijn keeping his place ahead of Bale and Lucas Moura, and Serge Aurier beating out Matt Doherty for the right back position. Although Bergwijn will likely start from the left, with Son on the right, expect them to switch flanks regularly as they have done in previous matches. Similar to their last matches, Tottenham will be expected to sit back and attempt to hit Arsenal on the counter with their front four.

It’s as balanced a lineup as Tottenham have. Aurier and Reguilon are attacking threats as Bergwijn & Son usually tuck inside to combine with Kane and Ndombele. Hojbjerg and Sissoko provide a solid platform with their defensive discipline and ball winning ability.

*Figure 2: Tottenham’s most used players average positions.*

Figure 2 above shows the average positions of Tottenhams most used players this season. We can see how the ST (Kane), LW (Son) and CAM (Ndombele) are very close to each other. All three are capable of hurting opposition with their combination play in those areas. The RW remains slightly wider but is also relatively narrow. Width is mainly provided by the fullbacks, likely to be Reguilon and Aurier. Hojbjerg and Sissoko shuttle the midfield to allow the front four to do some damage. Hojbjerg’s role and importance to this Tottenham side can be seen in Figure 3 below.

Hojbjerg’s role is highlighted clearly in Figure 3. Not only is he one of the best ball winners in the league (among midfielders), but he is also an extremely effective passer of the ball and ranks highly among midfielders to move the ball into the final third. His tenacity and passing ability make him the perfect midfielder to play behind Tottenham’s devastating front four. Moussa Sissoko, on the other hand, does not stand out in either. His role differs to that of Hojbjerg’s. Sissoko is not as involved in possession, being the target of only 34 passes per 90, compared to Hojbjerg’s 62. Indeed Sissoko’s inclusion is more reflected in his ability to cover a great deal of ground, and the type of defensive discipline that Mourinho values highly. Although he does not dribble in high volumes, he is an effective dribbler (100% success rate).

Build-Up & Progression:

Tottenham are one of the more flexible and adaptive teams when it comes to playing out from defense. In their previous two games for example, we saw a more conservative approach, with them usually going long and attempting to bypass their midfield to get the ball into the front four.

*Figure 4: Hugo Lloris’ passing every Gameweek*

From Figure 4, we can see that Tottenham have no set real preference in playing out from the back, with their approach reactive and usually dependent on the opponent. In most big games this season, Tottenham have gone more direct than they usually do and that is something that Arsenal can expect from them this weekend. This is likely due to their poor press resistance when attempting to play under pressure. This season Tottenham have one of the worst retention rates under pressure. In Figure 5 below, we can see that although Tottenham don’t regularly play out of the back, as well as preferring not to pass under pressure, their opponents are relatively successful in forcing turnovers when they put them under pressure.

When playing out of defense, Tottenham usually set up in two different ways depending on how many players are part of the oppositions first line of press. In most cases, Hojbjerg drops between the two centre backs, or to the left of Eric Dier, to from a back three and create a numerical overload in the first phase. In other situations, Tottenham build out with a 2-2 structure, with Hojbjerg usually deeper than the other shuttler, Moussa Sissoko who acts more as a free player. Both these structures call on the full-backs to stretch the pitch and create width.

*Figure 6: Tottenham’s Build-Up Structure vs Chelsea*

In the above example, Hojbjerg drops between the two CBs, which allows Tottenham create better angles to progress the ball, as well as allowing them to match Chelsea’s front line of press (3v3 or 3v2). This structure gives them two main options for progression, centrally to the retreating Ndombele or Kane, or out wide to one of the full backs who have been able to remain wide due to the back three. In the first picture, Dier plays it to Reguilon who now has some space to move up the pitch. We can see an example against Manchester City where Tottenham use Ndombele as their main progression outlet to quickly progress the ball in Figure 7.

*Figure 7: Progression through Ndombele*

Through Hojbjerg’s intelligent positioning and dropping deeper, he creates a 3v2 overload against Manchester City’s first line of press. This forces KDB to follow him and remain close, which in turn opens up the passing line to Ndombele to break the first line of press. Ndombele still has a lot of work to do, as he holds off Rodri and turns from him, forcing KDB to press him and leave Hojbjerg, creating a triangle between him Sissoko and Hojbjerg. He passes to Sissoko who now has an easy layoff to the unmarked Hojbjerg who switches play to the underloaded side and initiates the counter attack.

Indeed, we can see from Tottenham’s progression heatmap in Figure 8, that their main outlets are the wide areas (mostly the left to Reguilon) and the left halfspaces where Ndombele usually operates in. The heatmap shows the most common end locations of Tottenham’s progressive passes (Progressive Passes as per the Wyscout definition)

*Figure 8: End Location of Tottenham’s Progressive Passes*

With Tottenham’s wingers usually narrow, this essentially means that the full-backs are responsible for the entire wing, while Ndombele & Kane’s roles and hold-up play, are crucial to progressing the ball through the centre and half-spaces.

Full-Backs:

With Tottenham’s progression mainly through the wide areas, and their wingers narrow, this leaves a lot of attacking responsibility on the full-backs. With Reguilon and Aurier expected to start, we analyze the attacking and defensive roles of those two players.

Sergio Reguilon has been a great signing for Tottenham. Averaging 2.33 crosses per 90, 0.83 successful dribbles, 2 SCA, 0.13 xA and 448 yards progressed with his carrying, he has generally performed well in an attacking sense. Although there remains room for improvement, Reguilon has been a key outlet out wide for Tottenham.

From his attacking heatmap in Figure 9, Reguilon’s attacking responsibility is clear as he is tasked with shuttling the entire flank. From a defensive point of view we can see he has a tendency of performing actions high up the pitch, while his 1v1 dribble success rate of 33% is on the lower end.

Serge Aurier, on the other hand, has managed to beat out competition from Matt Doherty to start most of Tottenham’s ‘big’ matches this season. Similarly to Reguilon, he is also tasked with holding his width and providing an attacking outlet, albeit to a lesser extent. (0.12 xA, 1.44 successful dribbles, 367 yard progressed, 1.5 SCA and 1 cross).

Aurier’s attacking coverage is slightly less than that of Reguilon, while his defensive action zones are not as high.

Chance Creation:

Tottenham have been one of the most efficient teams this season, averaging 1.6xG per game and 2.1 goals per game (31% over-performance). They have been particularly dangerous in counter attacks. We have split their main chance creation methods into three. These can be seen in Figure 11.

Tottenham have been one of the most effective teams in creating chances from through balls, league highest 16 through balls this season. They have been particularly effective in creating chances from zone 14, while their crossing is more focused closer to the byline than from deep. There is a clear preference for their full backs to cross from more advanced positions.

Looking at their shots, Tottenham have created shots from some of the most dangerous areas, while they are particularly efficient from the left half-space. Arsenal should look to minimize the shots from that area.

Spurs are particularly dangerous in counter attacking situations, where they are most effective with their through passes. The game against Southampton being a prime example. Kane and Son are particularly dangerous in these situations. Figure 13 shows Tottenham as being one of the most dangerous teams in the league from counter-attacking situations.

In these situations, Harry Kane or Tanguy Ndombele drops deeper to receive the pass and provide a progression outlet. The wingers (usually Son), then run beyond that and between the full back and centre back to receive the ball in behind. Kane’s passing, coupled with Son’s pace and movement, has meant that this sequence and combination has been one of Tottenham’s most dangerous moves. An example can be seen in the clip below.

*Figure 14: Counter Attack v Southampton*

Defending & Pressing

Similar to their build-up, Tottenham are an adaptive team with the way they defend. Generally they don’t press very high, instead preferring to focus their pressing close to the halfway line and closing down spaces. 22% of their pressures are in the final third and explains why their success rate is on the lower end as their pressing is mainly focused on closing down spaces and forcing the opponent to regress rather than immediate turnovers.

Tottenham usually defend in a 4-4-2 mid block, with the two strikers tasked with closing down central progression lanes and forcing the ball out wide. This is when Tottenham look to press. As soon as the opponents enter the Tottenhams half, usually through the wider areas, the wingers are tasked with pressing to force them back. An example is shown below.

*Figure 16: Tottenham pressing wide in a 4-4-2*

When the ball advances into their defensive third, Tottenham defend with a narrow back four. The ball side winger and shuttler provide support to the full back and create a numerical superiority. The shuttler is tasked with closing down the half-spaces and can at times effectively create a back 6.

*Figure 17: Tottenham’s defensive shape when deep.*

It is no surprise then that most of the opponents attempted penalty area entries are from the wider areas. Despite the frequency, they are relatively unsuccessful. From the heat-map in Figure 18, we can see that the right half-space is where Tottenham seem to be the most vulnerable. They are, however effective in ensuring that opponents mostly attempt to enter the area from wide. The right hand side, in particular has seen more opposition joy, both in terms of frequency and success. This has resulted in Spurs having the second lowest shot quality against, despite being the 9th best team in terms of shots against.

*Figure 18: Opposition Penalty Area Entries.*

Corners:

Tottenham have a clear routine with their corners, with them mostly going for in-swinging corners to the near post. Two players usually attack the near post for a flick or shot, with at least one player attacking the far post. This has resulted in them having the 5th most shots from set-pieces, at 3.5 a game. Their routine can be seen in Figure 20.

Key Players: Son & Kane

Both players have taken new roles this season. Kane has been tasked with being the creative force, while Son has been feeding off him and been the team’s main goalscorer. Kane’s passes from deep to the onrushing Son have been a highlight of Tottenham’s season, they have been the most dangerous duo in the league this season. Their heat-maps (& roles are seen in Figure 21).

The heat-map shows Kane’s deeper role this season, while Son has been more advanced and especially active in the left half-space.

Their performance compared to other forwards in the league is seen in Figure 22. Arsenal must keep tabs on this particular combination and sequence of play.

*Figure 22: Kane & Son Performance Radars*

Key Players: Tanguy Ndombele

After a tough first season in England and under Mourinho, Ndombele has rebounded with a great start to the season and is finally gaining Mourinho’s trust. His technical ability, carrying ability and hold-up play have made him a key player in Tottenham’s start to the season. With his press resistance, he has proven to be one of Tottenham’s key progression outlets, as he is able to hold the ball well and bring others to play, as well as dribbling away from pressure. This can perhaps be best seen against Southampton earlier this season.

The clip above is a perfect example of his importance in moving Tottenham up the pitch and initiating counter attacking situations. As well as that, he is also Tottenham’s most aggressive presser, often seen him pressing as part of the first line as soon as opponents attempt to enter Tottenham’s half centrally. Arsenal must be wary when pressing him and look to cut his supply line. His 23.6 pressures p90 are second only to Giovani Lo Celso’s 26.7 amongst Tottenham players to have played more than 2 90s. Ndombele also averages 3.13 successful dribbles (94th percentile) and 3.77 progressive passes.

Potential Weaknesses to Exploit:

Reguilon 1v1: Tottenham’s defensive structure has generally protected him for 1v1s. However, if opponents are able to isolate him 1v1, it’s an area he struggles in, with a 33% success rate ranking him in the 26th percentile amongst full-backs.
Right Half-Space: As seen above, Spurs opponents have the most joy when attacking from the right, particularly from the right half space with a pass success rate of 69% into the area. If opponents are able to frequently get into that area, they will perhaps have more luck entering the area and in more dangerous zones. In Figure 24 we can see how a high % of key passes against Tottenham have originated from that right half-space.

*Figure 24: Key Passes Against Tottenham & Defensive Performance*

Central Areas & BTL: With Tottenham usually defending in a 4-4-2, there is potential to outnumber their two CMs, Sissoko & Hojbjerg, particularly when shifting from side to side. When the ball is wide, the ball side CM goes to support the full-back, this leaves a gap in the central area as well as on the underloaded far side that can be exploited with quick switches and intelligent BTL positioning. Figure 25 is an example.

*Figure 25: Central Areas Exploitation.*

Another situation that can be exploited is BTL passing, as Hojbjerg can at time be an aggressive presser and if bypassed, would create a dangerous opportunity. An example is in Figure 26 where the CMs have pushed high.

Set Pieces & Pressing: Looking at Spurs shot creating actions against, they are particularly vulnerable from dead ball situations and defensive actions (opponent pressing). On the other hand, they are the best side at stopping balls in behind (throughs). This, coupled with their lack of press resistance and reluctance to play from the back at times, can be exploited. Caution must remain though as they are dangerous in transition. These actions can be seen in Figure 27.

*Figure 27: Shot Creating Actions against*

Hugo Lloris Crosses: Hugo Lloris has had a solid season, with him not proving costly in conceding goals. He is however at the bottom of the goalkeeper list in his cross collection. Bombarding him with crosses (open-play and set pieces) could be key for Arsenal. These figures are shown in Figure 28.

Arsenal face a daunting task against the league leaders, who have been particularly impressive in big games. However, as seen above, there are areas that could be exploited by Arsenal.

Sources: Wyscout, Whoscored, Statsbomb via FBref

Scouting Tottenham Hotspur